Showing posts from May, 2018

House prices: hard to believe currently, but they do go down at times

Real estate prices continues to march unabated since the the crash of 2008 - 2012. Many cities (SF Bay area, Seattle) have already crossed the pre-2007 highs (by a lot). San Francisco median price is 2x that of 2007 highs.Just the equity gains made by residents in SF bay area and Seattle are more than average full time worker salaries. Some of this looks unsustainable. Prices look inflated and there's risk off behavior that assumes that house prices continue going up. Examples such as one shown here indicate that some house prices don't cover even carrying costs (interest + property tax). Is Fear of missing out (FOMO) causing these high prices? 
I don't claim to know how or when prices might get corrected. But now would be a good time to look at prior housing crashes to remember that housing does not always go up. There's no permanent high plateau in finance, and things go in cycles. Some of the risks which caused house price drops in the past may re-appear, or they m…